The First Decade-Long January 6th Insurrection Sentence is Coming Soon

     The consequences insurrectionists are facing for their actions on January 6th, 2021, are growing more severe virtually by the week. From his sentencing in December 2021 all the way until the end of July in 2022, Robert Scott Palmer of Florida held the distinction of the longest January 6th-related sentence, 63 months for assaulting law enforcement in the Lower West Terrace with a fire extinguisher. That record was tied in July 2022 when Mark Ponder, a career criminal, was given 63 months for assaulting law enforcement with a hockey stick. In August 2022, Guy Reffitt, the first Capitol insurrectionist to be convicted at trial, was sentenced to 87 months in prison for leading the charge during the Capitol siege before threatening to kill his son for turning him in. Later in the month, Thomas Robertson, a former Virginia police officer who stockpiled weapons after being released on bond, was sentenced to 87 months in prison.

     We've seen a rapid escalation in sentences this past few months, going from one man getting a 5.25-year sentence to two men getting 5.25-year sentences and two men getting 7.25-year sentences. The DOJ had asked for 15 years in prison for Reffitt, who was sentenced by a Trump-appointed judge. This has raised a question: who will be the first Capitol defendant to receive a sentence of ten years or longer?

     There is one candidate in mind who is the most likely. The DOJ has released a recommendation that Thomas Webster, the former Marine and NYPD detective convicted at trial of five felonies and a misdemeanor in May, be sentenced to 210 months-- 17.5 years-- in prison. Even if Webster gets let off the hook on the same level as Reffitt was (relatively speaking), that would be a 102-month sentence for him: Webster is all but guaranteed to get the longest sentence to date. The only question is exactly how long it will be. Considering that he was the first insurrectionist convicted at trial of assaulting law enforcement, I think a sentence of at least a decade is almost certain, even if he doesn't receive the full 210 months the DOJ is asking for.

     The other possibility, if Webster is given a sentence of less than a decade when he faces a judge on September 2nd, is that members of groups like the Proud Boys or the Oath Keepers could face a decade or longer. Charles Donohoe, a Proud Boys chapter leader from North Carolina, pleaded guilty to felony conspiracy charges and faces sentencing guidelines of 97 to 121 months in prison. He could receive the latter sentence of a decade, although that is unlikely. The more likely scenario is that the Oath Keepers will receive such a sentence. Their trial, the most important one by far in this case as of now, is set to begin on September 12th and last several weeks. If the Oath Keepers are convicted of seditious conspiracy at trial, they can forget about sentences of 10+ years in prison: they can expect to receive anywhere from 20 to 40 years for their actions. Their sentences will likely be the longest out of all the cases, so making sure they are sentenced harshly enough will be a huge symbolic move to achieve justice for the injustice that was perpetrated against the United States on January 6th.